In his blog on his XA Global Trade Advisors website Donald MacKay has written: “On July 10, ITAC initiated both anti-dumping and safeguard investigations into cold-rolled steel, with the anti-dumping investigation focusing on China.”
“Primary steel is now the most protected sector in SACU, with these two cases adding to an already significant duty burden. The result is an arbitrage that makes it more attractive to import products manufactured from steel rather than the steel itself, eroding the entire value chain. When downstream products are imported, we not only lose local manufacturing but also the demand those manufacturers create for locally produced steel, creating a death spiral for the entire industry.”
“The world is awash with steel, yet South Africa continues to support the creation of additional steel production through subsidies and concessional finance for steel mini-mills. This places even greater pressure on local steel prices, which cannot simply be offset by continuously increasing duties.”
“Between subsidies, tariffs, permits, temporary rebates, anti-dumping duties and safeguard measures, the steel sector has become extraordinarily complex. In such an environment, circumvention of duties is almost inevitable. As the system becomes more complicated, detecting that circumvention also becomes increasingly difficult, creating additional risks for both local producers and legitimate importers.”
“Both investigations were brought by ArcelorMittal South Africa (AMSA) and together cover approximately R3.05 billion worth of imports.”
Requested duties
“At present there is a 10% duty on cold-rolled steel, unless you import from a trade agreement region like the EU. In addition to this, AMSA requested anti-dumping duties of 119% against cold-rolled steel from China.”
“AMSA have requested safeguard duties of 40%, which we can all agree is a lot, especially given they will cover pretty much the whole world, including regions like the EU, which we have trade agreements with. If both matters succeed, these duties will accumulate. In other words, if you import from China you will pay 169% import duty (10% + 119% + 40%) on the overlapping tariff codes.”
The anti-dumping case on cold-rolled steel from China
“The investigation covers cold-rolled (cold-reduced) flat-rolled products, whether in coils or cut-to-length. The subject products are classifiable under tariff subheadings 7209.16, 7209.17, 7209.18 and 7225.50.”
“According to ITAC, there is prima facie evidence that the products are being dumped into the SACU market, causing material injury to the domestic industry. If no one opposes the application, the 119% anti-dumping duties will be imposed. What matters most in such matters is that the Chinese producers respond. Yes, it is essential that the importers and even more importantly, the users of the product locally respond, but if no Chinese producers respond, it will be difficult to get a lower duty than that requested.”
Interested parties have until 9 August 2026 to file their responses.
