The 2.8 million metric ton year-on-year increase in China helped October’s global output rise slightly from one year ago.

The world’s steel mills produced 151.2 million metric tons of crude steel in October, marking a 0.4 per cent increase compared with October of last year. Compared with the prior month, global output rose by 7.6 million metric tons, or 5.3 per cent. China was responsible for 4.8 million metric tons of that September-to-October boost, or 63 per cent of the overall rise in production.

The figures, compiled by the Brussels-based World Steel Association (Worldsteel) and representing output in 71 countries nations, show Chinese mills ramped up their production in October while mills in several other nations slowed down from their output levels earlier in the year.

The Baotou Iron & Steel steelmaking facility in China. Picture courtesy World Steel Association

The 81.9 million metric tons of steel made in China last month represents a 3.5 per cent increase compared with the 79.1 million metric tons it produced one year ago. Notably, it also marked a 6.2 per cent increase from the prior month, when Chinese mills made just 77.1 million metric tons of steel.

Reports have speculated that Chinese steelmakers might have ramped up output in anticipation of a government stimulus plan that would lead to a spike in steel demand.

Another theory involves Chinese steelmakers and manufacturers increased exports in anticipation of a Donald Trump presidency that will see trade barriers increase in the US, followed by similar protection measures enacted in Europe and other parts of the world.

Whatever the causes of the boost in output, it made China one of five of the world’s 10 largest steel-producing nations that experienced a production increase this October compared with one year earlier.

Nations with reduced year-on-year output include Russia (-15.2%), Japan (-7.8%), the United States (-2%), Iran (-1.9%) and South Korea (-1.8%).

Joining China in the rising output club were Brazil (+16.2%), Germany (+14.7%), India (+1.7%) and Turkey (+0.7%).

While output in India and Turkey, two leading US and European ferrous scrap export destinations, rose slightly, the pace of growth is down from earlier this year.

India’s 1.7 per cent October 2024 output increase compared with October 2023 is below its 5.6 per cent growth rate for the first 10 months of the year overall, according to Worldsteel.

In Turkey, a 0.7 per cent rise in October year-on-year output is even further off pace in contrast with its 12.7 per cent output boost for the first 10 months of 2024 compared with January through October 2023.